Europe is at it again, trying to pretend that it has stemmed the tides of insolvency through its program of lending huge amounts of money (at high interest rates) to… insolvent member-states. The official line, currently, is that the rot has stopped with Lisbon. Just like the EU-IMF €110 billion loan to Greece more than a year ago (in conjunction with a nominal €750 billion fund, the EFSF, standing by for other fiscally stricken countries) was meant to ring-fence the rest of the eurozone, inhibiting contagion from Athens, so now we are being asked to hope (against hope) that Spain has ‘decoupled’. It has done no such thing. As long as the banking crisis is left alone to fester, the crisis will continue its triumphant march.
For a year now many of us have been arguing that, to paraphrase good old Bill Clinton, It is the banks, stupid! Having started in their guts in 2008, the Crisis spread to the sovereign debt realm and then returned more viciously to where it had started: the banks. The result is that Europe’s zombiefied banks are now great black holes that absorb much of Europe’s economic energy (from the surpluses produced in countries like Germany to the loans taken out by struggling minnows, like Greece and Portugal). Quite remarkably, while the insolvent states are visited upon by stern IMF and EU officials, are constantly reviled by the ‘serious’ press for their ‘profligacy’ and ‘wayward’ fiscal stance, the banks go on receiving ECB liquidity and state funding (plus guarantees) with no strings attached. No memoranda, no conditions, nothing.
This is not to say, of course, that the powers-that-be do not discuss the banking catastrophe. I am sure that they are talking about little else. Only they do so in secret, behind closed doors, struggling to find a solution to the Great Banking Conundrum behind the European people’s backs and away from the spotlight of publicity. Their deliberations are now in a new phase, taking their cue from the Greek debt crisis. Lest I be misunderstood, the Greek crisis, however monstrous by Greek standards, is in itself no more than an annoyance for Europe’s surplus countries. A gross sum of €200 to €300 billion could be restructured quite easily or at least dealt with somehow. Its significance lies in the opportunity it offers Germany for revisiting the European banking disaster in its entirety. The Greek debt restructure, with its repercussions on Europe’s banks, is a useful case study; a dress rehearsal; an excuse to begin the process of taking the broaderGreat Banking Conundrum more seriously.
So, what is the Great Banking Conundrum that Europe is now facing? Put bluntly, Germany’s banks have not been cleansed of much of the worthless toxic paper of the pre-2008 era and, on top of that, are replete with bonds issued by the now insolvent peripheral member-states. French banks are in a similar state, with even more of an exposure to Spanish debt. Spanish banks are fibbing about the extent of their potential losses from falling real estate prices (which need to be added to their exposure to Portuguese and Spanish sovereign debt). Meanwhile, the ECB-system is massively exposed to the totality of this combination of stressed sovereign debt and unrelenting bank losses (actual and potential).
Question: What happens when a currency area (such as the dollar zone, the sterling area or, indeed, the eurozone) is lumbered with a mountain of debt plus banking losses at a time of sluggish growth both internally and externally?
Answer: It makes this mountain shrink through macroeconomic means. These means fall mainly under two categories. First, there are the blessings of mild inflation. By allowing average prices to rise, the mountain’s real value shrinks. Secondly, by effecting haircuts on debts and write-offs in the case of banking losses. Thirdly, when things get REALLY bad, they can always try devaluing their currency to make exports cheaper and help drive their economic growth. But when the entire worlds economy is in a comatose stasis, this would be the very last trick in the book they would use to try and kick-start their economy.
In the USA as in the UK, after re-capitalising the banks at the taxpayers’ great cost, the authorities opted for both strategies at once: Bank write-offs, large scale haircuts (e.g. a 90% cut into the debts of General Motors) plus quantitative easing for the purposes of pushing inflation to a modest level that will, in the long run, cut into the national debt. In sharp contrast, Europe has not moved in either direction. The lack of a common fiscal policy and the coordination failures that come with an ill-conceived monetary union played a central role in this dithering but are, I wish to argue, not the whole story.
So, what else is there, lurking in the shadows and prolonging Europe’s reluctance to act decisively? The answer, I submit, is: Germany’s twin angst regarding (a) its competitive edge in Asia and (b) the state of its banks. Germany’s relative success at weathering the crisis, after its own precipitous fall in 2008, has been due to the healthy demand for its capital goods from Asia; i.e. Japan and China. With Japan out of the picture (for reasons that were manifesting themselves even before the Tsunami), China is Germany’s source of optimism. But China’s own growth is based on the policies that Germany refused to countenance; i.e. massive infrastructural investments that have, interestingly, suppressed the country’s consumption share from 45% to 38% of GDP at a time of 10% GDP growth.
To sum up, with the USA entering a period of renewed contraction, following the budget cuts agreed between President Obama and the Republican Congress, China’s export growth (at least to the US) will dip. In conjunction with the incapacity of its domestic sector to replace the lost aggregate demand, and in the context of an inflation rate inflation racing ahead at 5.4% (March 2011 datum) [while house prices are continuing to rise at a breathtaking rate of 24%], China is heading for a recession; one that will either be induced by the authorities or, more worryingly, one that will simply happen spontaneously and rather brutally. Against this backdrop, it would be unwise, and particularly un-German, of Mr Schauble (Germany’s finance minister) to imagine that Germany’s smooth 2010 run can continue during the next few years. The rise in the interest rates of Germany’s own bonds, from 2.8% to 3.45% surely weighs heavily on his mind.
So, back to the debt crisis and Europe’s Great Banking Conundrum. If Europe were to allow inflation to gently eat away at the sovereign debt (especially the debt held by periphery nations), it would make some sense to keep lending Greece et al until the problem fades sufficiently. Indeed, it would be, all things being equal, equivalent to a haircut: For there is, at least on paper, no difference between (a) imposing a 30% haircut in nominal values to Greece’s €300 billion debt when inflation is around 1.5% to 2% and (b) imposing no haircut but allowing inflation to edge up to 2,8% to 3% for seven to eight years. From a political viewpoint, and from the perspective of a banking sector whom abhor haircuts as much as Dracula hates a rising sun, option (b) would be vastly preferable to option (a). But then again, all things are not equal!
To see what is not equal, just look at the fresh downgrade of Irish bonds. What was the rationale? That the austerity imposed in order to compensate for the state’s support of Ireland’s banks weakens the state’s finances making it necessary to bring on more austerity. The implication is clear: The vicious circle is unbroken. The EFSF lending to the Irish state is making no inroads into the crisis. In effect, the debt mountain is rising and so are the banking losses not just of the Irish banks but of the whole eurozone.
This realisation, though never acknowledged openly by the German Finance Ministry, is what lies behind the not so subtle change in Germany’s position vis-à-vis debt restructuring. That they only talked about Greece was merely a case of hinting at the general by focusing on the particular. The temptation to allow the mountain of debt to fade in the hands of mild inflation was purged by the belated realisation that the crisis’ dynamic is stronger than any mild inflationary process. And in view of developments in China and the USA, Germany is now eager to consider Plan B: Debt restructuring, beginning with Greece.
In the last few months, the first official mention of restructuring came from Ireland where the new government, with a fresh mandate to do all it can to shift the burdens off the weakened shoulders of the taxpayer, announced (through Michael Noonan, Ireland’s Finance Minister) a haircut of around €6 billion that would hit the banks’ subordinated bonds. Ideally, the government wanted to hit the banks’ senior creditors. In view, however, of staunch ECB resistance (in defence of these great sharks), Ireland is making a start with the medium sized fish that have, in the past, lent money to the private banks. As they say, the culling has to start somewhere. First, the weakest of all (the taxpayers), secondly the second weakest (the ‘subordinated’ bondholders).
Another sign that the combination of inflation and EFSF bail-outs is no longer seen as a viable ‘solution’ to the Crisis is the ECB’s decision to increase official eurozone interest rates to 2% at the end of the third quarter. Do they not know that this would push the insolvent peripheral states over the edge? Are they not aware that, for example, the interest rate reduction (over the bail out loans) that ex-Greek PM George Papandreou so boisterously celebrated on 25th March has withered away as a result of the ECB rate hikes? Of course they do. But that is the point: Whether the hapless Mr Trichet, the then-ECB Governor, knew it or not, Germany’s motivation to push for an ECB rate hike was crystal clear: To start the process of debt restructuring instead of relying on mild inflation to do the job that austerity in the peripheral countries could never do.
If I am right, why is Germany still not coming out with a clear statement that reflects its new mindset? The sad answer is: They have not worked out yet the form that the restructure will take, unsure of its costs to the German banks!
Before turning to the German banks as Germany’s main concern, what of the other prospective victims of a debt restructure? Is the German Finance Ministry not worried about Europe’s pension funds, about the hedge funds, about the ECB (which is holding about €100 billion of dud peripheral bonds, the result of its bond purchase program that started in May 2010, following the Greek IMF-EU loan)? The answer is no, no and no. But let’s take these three no’s in turn:
Pension funds: It is true that in Greece and Ireland, as elsewhere, many people worry about the costs of a restructure on pension funds. Let’s speculate that Mr Schauble and Mrs Merkel do not share these worries. If need be, they concluded long ago, pensioners will have to do with less. What alterative do they have? Perhaps (from Berlin’s perspective) this is a good thing, as southerners will now have an incentive to retire later and to save more during their working lives.
Hedge funds: Similarly with hedge funds. German politicians have always taken a dim view of these outfits (except when their failure brought down German banks, like IKB – but that’s another story). In any case, Mr Schauble thinks that hedge funds are not likely to lose much from a debt restructure at this juncture because over the past year (after the Greek crisis erupted) they managed to de-leverage considerably.
ECB: It is clear that Europe’s Central Bank is vehemently opposing a debt restructure for a number of reasons. One is that since last May it has purchased close to €100 billion of peripheral sovereign bonds and, thus, worried about its own balance books in case of a haircut. Another is that bankers do not like haircuts; it is in their nature to resist it. A third reason, the most powerful of the three, is that the ECB is already cross with European politicians because it feels the strain of dripfeeding the banks with huge amounts of liquidity. A haircut, the ECB feels, will increase this reliance. Does Germany not share these fears? It does but, according to a general consensus in the German Finance Ministry, Germany’s economic strategists are beginning to fear the effects of the crisis more. In the final analysis (they seem to think), the ECB’s position can be bolstered fairly easily if push comes to shove.
So, the only thing that stops Germany from announcing here and now a wholesale debt restructure is the banks. Thus the term the Great Banking Conundrum. The reason why banks are such a large problem is that they have their tentacles everywhere. Their profit is theirs to enjoy but their bankruptcy is everyone’s loss. Unable to cash in their ‘assets’ at a time of crisis, i.e. to retrieve their loans from their creditors (homeowners, businesses, governments), if they are forced to come clean regarding the true value of these assets bank insolvency beckons. And so Europe is not forcing serious stress tests upon them.
Germany’s concern, therefore, and the reason its government remains undecided on the Greek debt, is that it is struggling to compute the losses to Germany’s banks from a restructure of Greek, Irish and Portuguese sovereign debt. There are two issues here: First, it is impossible simply to calculate the knock on effects. For instance, while we know almost to the last euro the exposure of European banks to peripheral debt (see here for a great interactive guide), it is virtually impossible to predict how, say, a 50% haircut of that debt will reverberate throughout a financial system whose opacity and inter-connectivity is notorious. A recent figure that was given by a well known German banker, is that a 50% haircut on EU peripheral debt would translate into an extra €850 billion of fresh capital that would need to be put into French and German banks alone to compensate them for the losses they will end up incurring.
Secondly, there is an international dimension that an export-oriented country like Germany cannot afford to ignore. E.g. many of these bonds are owned by non-European banks. If they lose a lot of money, these losses can trigger another round of government infusions (in places like Japan, China, Korea etc.) which may affect local investment in projects that would otherwise require German capital goods… What is the likely magnitude of this problem? The Bank for International Settlements tells us that the total exposure of non-EU banks to Greek, Portuguese and Irish debt is a mere $363 billion. This is peanuts, by the standards of the 2008-11 crisis. But then again it does not take into consideration (a) the amounts owed to UK banks and (b) the more than likely Spanish sovereign troubles.
In view of the serious problems that a horizontal debt restructure would cause to Germany’s banks and to its external trade relations, the German Ministry of Finance is therefore reluctant to come out, once and for all, in favour of a debt restructure. On the one hand, they have concluded that it is inevitable. On the other, they know it will bring huge costs to bear upon primarily Germany’s own banks but also, and this is equally daunting, to its export sector. The result is a new spate of….dithering.
Germany is experiencing a surge in self-confidence which, paradoxically, comes hand-in-hand with a realisation that its current good fortunes may be on borrowed time. For a year now, Berlin kept hoping that the euro crisis would, given sufficient time, go away of its own accord. Mild inflation played a major role in that dream of gradual recovery. However, the complete and utter failure to end the debt crisis by means of austerity-plus-loans in the European periphery has caused the German Finance Ministry to conclude that there is no way of avoiding Plan B: a debt re-structure. Alas, the Great Banking Conundrumis causing much consternation, the result being more procrastination and a series of conflicting statements from the German government that, understandably, push spreads up and intensify both the debt crisis and the banking conundrum.
This is the bad news. Is there a silver lining? Undoubtedly yes. A tranche transfer of part of the sovereign debt (which effectively restructures the Maastricht-compliant part of the debt without imposing a haircut), a selective haircut on zombie banks that rely of ECB for liquidity (and which does not affect the pension funds) plus (and this is important) the recapitalisation of banks by the EFSF in a manner that allows Europe, once and for all, to cleanse its banks of worthless titles and, soon, to return them to the private sector squeaky clean and ready to do business (as opposed to their current function as the EU’s black financial holes). Ignoring the proposals above or adding some such policy intervention, and continuing with the current, punitive bail-outs instead, will lead to the worst of all possible worlds: A deterioration of the debt crisis, a further escalation of the banking crisis and, in the end, a weakened Germany at a time when its good fortunes in Asia will be waning fast with possibly the total collapse of the euro as a global currency.